Macroeconomics/Quick Reference

Front entrance of the Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building.

This quick reference guide to macroeconomic theory briefly describes key economic indicators, key terms and concepts, interrelationships, and typical policy goals.^[1]

1. Key Macroeconomic Indicators

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period.
• Real vs. Nominal GDP – Real GDP adjusts for inflation; nominal GDP does not.
• GDP Deflator – A price index measuring the level of prices of all new, domestically produced goods and services.
• Unemployment Rate – The percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment.
• Types of Unemployment –
  • Frictional: Temporary, due to job transitions
  • Structural: Due to mismatches in skills
  • Cyclical: Caused by downturns
  • Natural Rate: Frictional + structural
• Inflation – The rate at which the general price level for goods and services rises.
• CPI & PPI – Consumer and Producer Price Indexes track changes in retail and wholesale prices, respectively.
• Core Inflation – Inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices.
• Interest Rates – The cost of borrowing money, set partly by central banks.
• Nominal vs. Real Interest Rates – Real rates are adjusted for inflation.
• Balance of Payments – A record of all financial transactions between a country and the rest of the world.
  • Current Account: Trade in goods/services, income, transfers
  • Capital/Financial Account: Investments and reserves
• Exchange Rates – The value of one currency relative to another; influences trade and capital flows.

2. Aggregate Models

• Aggregate Demand (AD) – Total spending in the economy at different price levels.
• Aggregate Supply (AS) – Total output producers are willing to supply at different price levels.
• AD-AS Equilibrium – Where AD and AS intersect; determines output and price level.
• IS-LM Model – Shows interaction between real output (IS curve) and interest rates (LM curve) in the goods and money markets.
• Phillips Curve – Illustrates inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run; vertical in the long run.

3. Fiscal Policy

• Government Spending & Taxation – Primary tools for managing aggregate demand.
• Budget Deficit/Surplus – Occurs when government spending exceeds/recedes revenue.
• Public Debt – Accumulated deficits over time.
• Fiscal Multipliers – Measure the impact of fiscal policy on total economic output.
• Crowding Out – When government borrowing reduces private investment.

4. Monetary Policy

• Central Banks – Institutions like the Federal Reserve that manage the money supply and interest rates.
• Money Supply (M1, M2) – Measures of liquid money in circulation.
• Open Market Operations (OMOs) – Buying/selling government bonds to influence liquidity.
• Reserve Requirements – Minimum reserves banks must hold, affecting their lending ability.
• Discount Rate – Interest rate charged by central banks to commercial banks.
• Quantitative Easing (QE) – Central bank policy of purchasing assets to inject liquidity.

5. Economic Growth

• Factors of Production – Inputs: land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship.
• Productivity – Output per unit of input; key driver of long-term growth.
• Technological Change – Increases productive capacity and efficiency.
• Solow Growth Model – Explains long-term growth through capital accumulation, labor, and tech.
• Endogenous Growth Theory – Emphasizes internal factors like innovation and knowledge in driving growth.

6. Business Cycles

• Phases – Expansion (growth), Peak, Contraction (recession), Trough (bottom).
• Causes – Shocks to supply or demand, policy shifts, or financial instability.
• Indicators –
  • Leading: Predict future activity (e.g., stock market)
  • Lagging: Confirm trends (e.g., unemployment)
  • Coincident: Occur in real time with economic conditions

7. International Macroeconomics

• Trade Balance – Net exports (exports – imports); a component of the current account.
• Comparative Advantage – Ability to produce a good at lower opportunity cost than others.
• Exchange Rate Systems –
  • Fixed: Pegged to another currency
  • Floating: Determined by market forces
• Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) – Theory that exchange rates should equalize the price of identical goods across countries.
• Global Institutions – IMF, World Bank support economic stability and development globally.

8. Schools of Economic Thought

• Classical – Markets are self-correcting; government intervention unnecessary.
• Keynesian – Active government role needed to manage demand, especially in recessions.
• Monetarist – Focus on controlling money supply to manage the economy.
• New Classical – Emphasizes rational expectations and market-clearing models.
• New Keynesian – Integrates microfoundations with price/wage stickiness.
• Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) – Advocates sovereign currency issuers can run deficits to fund public purpose without defaulting.

9. Common Graphs and Diagrams

• AD-AS Curve – Shows interaction of total demand and supply.
• Phillips Curve – Illustrates inflation-unemployment tradeoff.
• IS-LM Model – Illustrates equilibrium in goods and money markets.
• Laffer Curve – Suggests there is a tax rate beyond which revenue falls.
• Money Market – Shows demand and supply for money and equilibrium interest rate.
• Loanable Funds Market – Graphs saving and investment dynamics.
• PPF (Production Possibilities Frontier) – Illustrates opportunity cost and efficiency.

10. Key Terms and Concepts

• Potential Output – Economy’s maximum sustainable output.
• Output Gap – Difference between actual and potential output.
• Stagflation – High inflation combined with high unemployment.
• Liquidity Trap – Monetary policy becomes ineffective due to near-zero interest rates.
• Velocity of Money – Rate at which money circulates in the economy.
• Natural Rate of Unemployment – Unemployment consistent with stable inflation.
• Okun’s Law – Relationship between GDP growth and changes in unemployment.
• Tax –  a mandatory financial charge or levy imposed on an individual or legal entity by a governmental organization to support government spending and public expenditures collectively or to regulate and reduce negative externalities.
• Duty – a target-specific form of tax levied by a state or other political entity.
• Tarriff – a duty imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports of goods and is paid by the importer.

Interrelationships

Understanding the interrelationships among key macroeconomic indicators is essential because these indicators don't operate in isolation—they interact dynamically.^[2] Below is a concise description of how major indicators influence and respond to one another, often forming feedback loops or signaling broader economic trends.

GDP ↔ Unemployment

• Inverse relationship (Okun’s Law): As GDP increases (economic growth), unemployment tends to fall, since firms hire more to meet rising demand.
• During recessions, GDP contracts and unemployment rises.

GDP ↔ Inflation

• Demand-pull inflation: When GDP rises quickly (booming economy), demand can outpace supply, pushing up prices.
• Stagflation exception: GDP may stagnate or decline while inflation remains high, often due to supply shocks.

Unemployment ↔ Inflation

• Short-run tradeoff (Phillips Curve): Lower unemployment may lead to higher inflation as labor markets tighten and wages rise.
• Long-run view: No tradeoff; attempts to keep unemployment below the natural rate lead only to accelerating inflation.

Interest Rates ↔ Inflation

• Central banks raise interest rates to fight inflation by reducing borrowing and spending.
• Lower interest rates stimulate demand, which can increase inflation if the economy is near full capacity.

Interest Rates ↔ GDP

• Inverse relationship: Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, increasing investment and consumption → GDP growth.
• Higher rates dampen spending and investment → GDP slows.

Exchange Rates ↔ Inflation

• Currency depreciation raises import prices, contributing to inflation.
• Currency appreciation lowers import prices, easing inflation pressures.

Exchange Rates ↔ GDP

• Weaker currency boosts exports by making them cheaper abroad → increases GDP.
• Stronger currency may reduce exports and GDP but increase purchasing power for imports.

Balance of Payments ↔ Exchange Rates

• Current account deficits can put downward pressure on the domestic currency.
• Capital inflows (financial account surplus) can offset a current account deficit and strengthen the currency.

Feedback Loops and Complex Dynamics

• A positive GDP shock (e.g., due to innovation or government stimulus) → reduces unemployment → may raise inflation → prompts interest rate hikes → may slow GDP again.
• Supply shocks (e.g., oil prices) → raise inflation and reduce output → central banks face tradeoffs.

Typical Policy Goals

The typical goals of macroeconomic policy aim to promote economic stability, growth, and general well-being.^[3] While specific priorities may shift depending on context, most governments and central banks pursue the following core objectives:

1. Economic Growth

• Goal: Achieve sustained increases in real GDP over time.
• Why: Growth improves living standards, increases income, and expands employment opportunities.
• Policy tools: Fiscal stimulus (spending/tax cuts), investment in infrastructure, education, and innovation.

2. Low and Stable Inflation

• Goal: Maintain a moderate, predictable rate of price increases (often around 2% annually).
• Why: Stability in prices preserves purchasing power, supports savings, and reduces uncertainty in planning.
• Policy tools: Monetary policy (interest rates, open market operations), inflation targeting.

3. Full Employment

• Goal: Ensure that everyone who is willing and able to work can find employment.
• Why: High employment reduces poverty, maximizes productivity, and promotes social stability.
• Note: “Full employment” does not mean zero unemployment—some frictional and structural unemployment is normal.

4. Balance of Payments Stability

• Goal: Avoid persistent trade deficits or surpluses that can cause currency instability or unsustainable debt.
• Why: Stable external accounts support confidence in a country's economy and currency.
• Policy tools: Exchange rate policy, trade agreements, capital controls (in rare cases).

5. Stable Financial System

• Goal: Prevent financial crises and ensure trust in banks and capital markets.
• Why: A sound financial system supports investment, credit, and consumer confidence.
• Policy tools: Financial regulation, central bank oversight, lender-of-last-resort interventions.

6. Equitable Income Distribution (Optional/Contextual)

• Goal: Reduce excessive inequality to promote social cohesion and inclusive growth.
• Why: Inequality can harm long-term growth and fuel political instability.
• Policy tools: Progressive taxation, social safety nets, access to education and healthcare.

7. Environmental Sustainability (Emerging Priority)

• Goal: Integrate long-term ecological health into economic planning.
• Why: Unsustainable growth can degrade natural resources and reduce future prosperity.
• Policy tools: Carbon pricing, green investment, environmental regulations.